The Demise of Joakim Noah?

Last night's loss to the Cleveland Cavaliers could only be toppled by the Chicago Bear's blown game against the Minnesota Vikings earlier this afternoon. What a terrible weekend for Chicago sports.

Last night's game against the Cavaliers wasn't as bad as the records might indicate. Cleveland is a decent team with lots of offensive firepower. Kyrie Irving, though mostly contained, still poured in 19 points and 6 assists. Emerging power forward Tristan Thompson had 14/14, and Dion Waiters did his best Nate Robinson impression, coming in off the bench and taking every shot that came his way en route to 20 points and 0 assists.

However, the big difference maker last night was one Andrew Bynum. The much heavier Bynum dropped in 20 points, grabbed 10 boards, and blocked 5 shots in 30 minutes of action. Bynum absolutely dominated Joakim Noah, which leads me to this question...

Are we experiencing the demise of Joakim Noah?

After posting career highs in scoring, rebounds, and blocked shots last season, Noah has yet to show anything offensively, scoring only 8.8 points per game on 45% shooting from the field. On the defensive end, Noah has not shown his trademark energy to quite the same extent, grabbing only 8 boards per game and not even averaging 1 block per contest.

It goes without saying that, offensively, Noah has zero confidence. His trademark 18 footer isn't there, but even worse, he's scared to death of pulling the trigger. Noah's only shooting 62% from the freet throw line, down 10 percentage points from his career average of 72%. While his hi-low passing remains fantastic, Noah no longer needs to be guarded on the perimeter, allowing teams to clog the paint against slashes from Luol Deng and easily double down on Carlos Boozer or Taj Gibson in the post. This allows a poor defensive team like the Cavaliers to look competent (at times).

On the defensive end, I suspect Noah isn't suffering from a lack of confidence. Rebounds are often as much effort as skill, particularly for Noah. This season, guys like Anderson Varejao and Bynum have pushed him around with little resistance. Because Noah usually plays well at the beginning of games, I'm questioning whether his issue may be conditioning or even the lingering impact of the injuries Noah sustained during the preseason.

A Gibson/Boozer combination is too small to remain on the floor for a sustained period of time, particularly against a dominant post scorer like Andrew Bynum. Noah either needs to sit until he's healthy or figure out what's going on in his head.

If the Bulls want to make it to a second round exit this year, Noah must step up his game. I have a hard time believing his career has peaked, and I am confident that he'll resemble the Joakim Noah of 2012-13 at some point this season. However, this offseason may be the perfect time to start grooming his successor.

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What Should the Bulls do without Derrick Rose?

My initial reaction to Derrick Rose's injury was rash, but certain in its message: blowup the team. However, after further reflection, I think the Bulls have several possible directions to go in the off-season or regular season. Let's take a look at a few possible scenarios.

Rebuild on the Fly

Realistically, the Bulls do not have to break-up the team, even if that is an attractive option. The Bulls have approximately $64.5 million in salary obligations for the 2014-2015 season. Early projections suggest the cap will be about $62.1 million, putting the Bulls slightly over the cap.

With Taj Gibson playing well recently, I think the cries to amnesty Carlos Boozer will finally be met. Let's not forget that this is a real cash expense of $16.8 million, though it will lower the Bulls' cap figure to $47.7 million, freeing up around $14.1 million. In other words, the Bulls will have enough money for good player, but not a superstar.

Pau Gasol

If the Bulls do indeed amnesty Boozer, I think Pau Gasol could be an interesting fit on a two-year deal in the neighborhood of $20 million. The Lakers are armed with tons of cap room, but I am not sure Gasol wants to return to a team that doesn't enjoy using one of the best post scorers in the league.

This idea is far from flawless, as Gasol is going to be 34 years old and his numbers have dropped as he has been plagued by a bad system and injuries. The other problem with this idea is Taj Gibson. His large contract is simply too much for the minutes he plays. I'm a firm believer that most of a team's cap space should be allocated to finishers: those players you want on the court in crunch time. Yes, Gibson often plays down the stretch, but that forces the uber expensive Boozer to ride the pine. I want as much of my cap as possible on the court in the last few minutes, and that simply isn't possible under this arrangement.

Deng/Humph

The Bulls could also opt to amnesty Boozer, resign Luol Deng, and pursue a larger power forward with the mid-level exception/left over cap room. I really don't like this idea because the Bulls will have to rely on Taj Gibson playing heavy minutes and hope they can sign a backup in the ilk of Kris Humphries who can play as a small 5 or averaged sized 4.

Deng/Mirotic

The wild card option remains Nikola Mirotic. The dude is a stud, and he looks like the next Toni Kukoc, except better defensively. However, Mirotic won't be cheap because he's making a run for a second consecutive Euro League MVP trophy. Mirotic will probably want (and earn) at least $7 million per season, so the Bulls will be forced to amnesty Boozer and possibly trade Gibson to free-up some cap space.

To be completely honest, I think this is the ONLY way it makes sense to keep Deng. Deng is a fantastic NBA player, but the Bulls desperately need an offensive creator, and I think Mirotic can be that guy. This team would be scary good offensively with Rose in the fold, and the Bulls could play a fairly small, but deadly, offense that involves Rose/Butler/Deng/Mirotic/Noah. Miortic weighs basically nothing and will have a hard time defending powerful 4s in the mold of Zach Randolph, but this lineup could light up the scoreboard.

Full Rebuild

Let me get this off my chest first and foremost: the Bulls will not tank this season, and unless new commissioner Adam Silver enjoys rigging drafts like David Stern, the Bulls will not be able to acquire the first overall pick/Jabari Parker.

Strong Mid-1st Round Talent

That being said, the 2014 NBA draft class is insanely talented, and the Bulls will be served well if they can utilize 2 1st round picks (one from the Bobcats/Hornets). Even in the middle of the first round, the Bulls might be able to grab Arizona's Aaron Gordon, Kansas' Wayne Selden, Michigan's Glenn Robinson III, or Kentucky's Andrew Harrison. The talent will be there even if the Bulls can't sneak into the lottery.

Interestingly enough, this probably applies to the Bulls in the event of a full rebuild or just a quick retooling. I think the Bulls will have the chance to acquire some strong rotation players regardless of where they land in the draft. 

Deng or Boozer for Hardaway/Shumpert/Bargnani

If the Bulls want to fully rebuild, I think the team should acquire some "damaged" goods or make moves for players who may be underutilized in their current situations. I think this would be the perfect opportunity for the Bulls to trade Deng to a team like the New York Knicks who are desperate to compete for a title. Carmelo Anthony could move into the PF role, and the Bulls could give up Deng for Andrea Bargnani (ew), Tim Hardaway Jr., and Iman Shumpert. This would allow Jimmy Butler to move into his more natural role as a small forward, give the Bulls a creative offensive player in Hardaway and a strong defender in Shumpert. It's definitely a risky trade, but the Bulls get younger and deeper.

The Knicks might be hesitant to do it, but I can't imagine another team that would be bold enough to move some young assets for an established all-star in hopes of an NBA title. Deng can defend LeBron James much better than Anthony can, and when Tyson Chandler returns, the Knicks could be a great defensive team. The Knicks could also be interested in taking on Boozer for the same players.

Deng for Waiters/Clark/Gee/1st Rounder

If the Cavs want to go all-in for LeBron James (assuming he opts out of his deal), then they will need some cap space. The Bulls get upside in Dion Waiters and a 1st round pick, a cheap bench player in Alonzo Gee, and a player who can have his contract terminated in Earl Clark. I think the Cavs may be suckered into a rental, particularly if owner Dan Gilbert thinks the Cavs have a legitimate shot at LeBron James. I'm not sure the Bulls would want to acquire such a significant amount of players and contractual obligations, but I think it is an interesting idea worthy of further investigation.

There are several trades and moves the Bulls can make, but they might simply stand pat. The only move I think fans can fully expect is the amnesty of Boozer in the offseason. In fact, the Bulls might be able to vault themselves into championship contenders with the largely the same core (Rose/Butler/Deng/Noah/Gibson) if they are able to sign Mirotic. While I'm not crazy about giving GarPax another shot at building a contender, Bulls fans should be excited about the various possibilities going forward. If the Bulls don't go into full-tank mode, I would love for them to acquire somebody--anybody--that can create shots off the dribble.

If I had to put money on it, I would say the Bulls' starting five next year will be:

Rose
Butler
Deng
Gibson
Noah

With Tony Snell, Nikola Mirotic, Marquis Teague, Mike Dunleavy, and league minimum veterans coming off the bench.

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